Fri, 11th Nov 2011 (15:15hrs)
Host: Colin O'Hare
Location: Syndicate Room 6 (Rm 01.013) - Riddel Hall
Speaker: Daniel Bauer, Georgia State University
Catastrophe Mortality Bonds are a recent capital market innovation providing insurers and reinsurers with the possibility to transfer catastrophe mortality risk off their balance sheets to capital markets. This paper introduces a time-continuous model for analyzing and valuating catastrophe mortality-contingent claims based on stochastic modeling of the force of mortality. In addition, we give an concise survey of past transactions and explain in detail the structure of the deals and the securities. Parameter estimates of the proposed model based on simulated maximum likelihood estimation are derived. The resulting loss profiles and spread levels are then compared to loss profiles provided by the issuers and to market prices. We find that the profiles are subject to great uncertainties and should hence be considered with care by investors and, especially, rating agencies.
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